Politically aware people looking at the Duopoly in the US and thinking "Oh dear fuck no, not that"
Politically aware people looking at the Duopoly in the US and thinking "Oh dear fuck no, not that"
NOTE: MAYORAL ELECTION OPINION POLLING
An example of why polling is difficult, especially for local elections, can be found in the tables of the #YouGov mayoral opinion polls.
Here is a list of how the percentage of people polled reporting an 8 out of 10, or greater, certainty of voting compares to the turnout at the last set of elections in the area in question:
Reported/actual last time:
Cambs & Peterborough: 63%/37%
Greater Lincolnshire: 57%/35%ish
Hull & East Yorks: 56%/31%
West of England: 60%/37%
So yeah, trying to accurately predict election outcomes based on opinion poll responses is hard.
NOTE: MAYORAL ELECTION OPINION POLLING
An example of why polling is difficult, especially for local elections, can be found in the tables of the #YouGov mayoral opinion polls.
Here is a list of how the percentage of people polled reporting an 8 out of 10, or greater, certainty of voting compares to the turnout at the last set of elections in the area in question:
Reported/actual last time:
Cambs & Peterborough: 63%/37%
Greater Lincolnshire: 57%/35%ish
Hull & East Yorks: 56%/31%
West of England: 60%/37%
So yeah, trying to accurately predict election outcomes based on opinion poll responses is hard.
CAMBRIDGESHIRE & PETERBOROUGH OPINION POLL
Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:
Conservatives: 32%
Reform UK: 20%
Labour: 19%
Liberal Democrats: 18%
Green Party: 10%
Conservative lead of 12 points.
Conducted 9-23 April 2025.
CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.
WEST OF ENGLAND OPINION POLL
Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:
Green Party: 27%
Labour: 23%
Reform UK: 18%
Conservatives: 17%
Liberal Democrats: 13%
Independent: 2%
Green lead of 4 points.
Conducted 9-23 April 2025.
CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.
HULL & EAST YORKSHIRE OPINION POLL
Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:
Reform UK: 35%
Liberal Democrats: 21%
Labour: 20%
Conservatives: 15%
Green Party: 7%
Independent: 3%
Reform lead of 14 points.
Conducted 9-23 April 2025.
CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.
GREATER LINCOLNSHIRE OPINION POLL
Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:
Reform UK: 40%
Conservatives: 25%
Labour: 15%
Green Party: 8%
Independent: 7%
Liberal Democrats: 5%
Reform lead of 15 points.
Conducted 9-23 April 2025.
CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.
The weekly #YouGov #poll provides no relief for the #LNP, who are down 2 on the primary vote to 31%, maintaining a descent from 37% in mid-March.
Less than half of this has been gained by #Labor, the latest result having them up half a point to 33%.
#TheGreens are up a point to 14%, while One Nation enjoys a remarkable three-and-a-half point fillip to 10.5% — their best result in any poll since the 2022 election.
New Poll: Near Majority of Registered Voters Want to Fire Elon Musk
A YouGov poll commissioned by Common Cause shows 49% of registered voters support President Trump firing Elon Musk from his role as special advisor.
Additionally, the vast majority of Democratic voters (75%) believe that their party is doing too little to oppose the efforts of Elon Musk and DOGE.
#ImpeachElon #YouGov #CommonCause
https://www.commoncause.org/articles/new-poll-near-majority-of-registered-voters-want-to-fire-elon-musk/
Ah, the #Brits have chosen not to read, likely busy perfecting the art of tea brewing or counting sheep. #YouGov, our relentless purveyor of obvious facts, has once again dazzled with a revelation that #reading isn't quite as popular as binge-watching reality TV.
https://yougov.co.uk/entertainment/articles/51730-40-of-britons-havent-read-a-single-book-in-the-last-12-months #trends #realityTV #culture #humor #HackerNews #ngated
Via #TheGuardian, Mar 06, 2025
Large majorities in 5 western #European countries think #Trump is a threat to #peace & #security in #Europe, a survey has found, after the US president assailed #Zelenskyy & suspended military aid to #Ukraine
The #YouGov polling of #France, #Germany, #Italy, #Spain and the #UK was carried out in dramatic week that left Europe’s leaders scrambling to respond to prospect of the US pulling long-term support from Ukraine & its European allies
Very interesting #yougov #poll on UK leaders, with Nigel Farrage more disliked than any other leader and Reform voters have fallen out of love for #Trump
#ukpol #starmer #farage #reformuk
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51739-how-have-recent-developments-in-ukraine-affected-favourability-ratings
#YouGov poll 16-17 Feb
#ForeignLeader Favourability Ratings amongst #British #Voters:
#VolodymyrZelenskyy
Favourable: 64%
Unfavourable: 16%
NET: +48%
#DonaldTrump
Favourable: 22%
Unfavourable: 73%
NET: -51%
#VladimirPutin
Favourable: 4%
Unfavourable: 89%
NET: -85%
Wartet mal, @dawum nimmt jetzt Spenden auf @Liberapay an?!
https://liberapay.com/dawum.de
Ich wusste um ehrlich zu sein, nicht dass das mehr so eine Art Hobbyprojekt ist, sondern dachte immer das wäre von irgend einem großen Umfrage Institut.
Naja jetzt wisst ihr Bescheid: https://dawum.de/Ueber_uns