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NOTE: MAYORAL ELECTION OPINION POLLING

An example of why polling is difficult, especially for local elections, can be found in the tables of the #YouGov mayoral opinion polls.

Here is a list of how the percentage of people polled reporting an 8 out of 10, or greater, certainty of voting compares to the turnout at the last set of elections in the area in question:

Reported/actual last time:

Cambs & Peterborough: 63%/37%
Greater Lincolnshire: 57%/35%ish
Hull & East Yorks: 56%/31%
West of England: 60%/37%

Source: yougov.co.uk/politics/articles

So yeah, trying to accurately predict election outcomes based on opinion poll responses is hard.

yougov.co.ukCombined authority mayoral elections 2025: where does voting intention stand? | YouGovReform UK have clear leads in inaugural races for Lincolnshire and Hull mayors

NOTE: MAYORAL ELECTION OPINION POLLING

An example of why polling is difficult, especially for local elections, can be found in the tables of the #YouGov mayoral opinion polls.

Here is a list of how the percentage of people polled reporting an 8 out of 10, or greater, certainty of voting compares to the turnout at the last set of elections in the area in question:

Reported/actual last time:

Cambs & Peterborough: 63%/37%
Greater Lincolnshire: 57%/35%ish
Hull & East Yorks: 56%/31%
West of England: 60%/37%

Source: yougov.co.uk/politics/articles

So yeah, trying to accurately predict election outcomes based on opinion poll responses is hard.

yougov.co.ukCombined authority mayoral elections 2025: where does voting intention stand? | YouGovReform UK have clear leads in inaugural races for Lincolnshire and Hull mayors

CAMBRIDGESHIRE & PETERBOROUGH OPINION POLL

Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:

🔵 Conservatives: 32%
⚪ Reform UK: 20%
🔴 Labour: 19%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 18%
🟢 Green Party: 10%

Conservative lead of 12 points.

Conducted 9-23 April 2025.

CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.

WEST OF ENGLAND OPINION POLL

Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:

🟢 Green Party: 27%
🔴 Labour: 23%
⚪ Reform UK: 18%
🔵 Conservatives: 17%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 13%
⚫ Independent: 2%

Green lead of 4 points.

Conducted 9-23 April 2025.

CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.

HULL & EAST YORKSHIRE OPINION POLL

Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:

⚪ Reform UK: 35%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 21%
🔴 Labour: 20%
🔵 Conservatives: 15%
🟢 Green Party: 7%
⚫ Independent: 3%

Reform lead of 14 points.

Conducted 9-23 April 2025.

CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.

GREATER LINCOLNSHIRE OPINION POLL

Mayoral voting intention by #YouGov:

⚪ Reform UK: 40%
🔵 Conservatives: 25%
🔴 Labour: 15%
🟢 Green Party: 8%
⚫ Independent: 7%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 5%

Reform lead of 15 points.

Conducted 9-23 April 2025.

CAVEAT: Local/regional election turnout is much lower than national elections and varies widely depending on what other elections are taking place and how much campaigning is taking place on the ground. This can lead to very large polling errors.

The weekly #YouGov #poll provides no relief for the #LNP, who are down 2 on the primary vote to 31%, maintaining a descent from 37% in mid-March.

Less than half of this has been gained by #Labor, the latest result having them up half a point to 33%.

#TheGreens are up a point to 14%, while One Nation enjoys a remarkable three-and-a-half point fillip to 10.5% — their best result in any poll since the 2022 election.

Labor’s lead is out from 53-47 to 53.5 #auspol #ausvotes

New Poll: Near Majority of Registered Voters Want to Fire Elon Musk

A YouGov poll commissioned by Common Cause shows 49% of registered voters support President Trump firing Elon Musk from his role as special advisor.

Additionally, the vast majority of Democratic voters (75%) believe that their party is doing too little to oppose the efforts of Elon Musk and DOGE.

#ImpeachElon #YouGov #CommonCause

commoncause.org/articles/new-p

Common CauseNew Poll: Near Majority of Registered Voters Want to Fire Elon Musk

Via #TheGuardian, Mar 06, 2025

Large majorities in 5 western #European countries think #Trump is a threat to #peace & #security in #Europe, a survey has found, after the US president assailed #Zelenskyy & suspended military aid to #Ukraine

The #YouGov polling of #France, #Germany, #Italy, #Spain and the #UK was carried out in dramatic week that left Europe’s leaders scrambling to respond to prospect of the US pulling long-term support from Ukraine & its European allies

theguardian.com/us-news/2025/m

The Guardian · Majority of western Europeans think Trump is threat to peace, survey findsBy Jon Henley

Wartet mal, @dawum nimmt jetzt Spenden auf @Liberapay an?!
liberapay.com/dawum.de
Ich wusste um ehrlich zu sein, nicht dass das mehr so eine Art Hobbyprojekt ist, sondern dachte immer das wäre von irgend einem großen Umfrage Institut.
Naja jetzt wisst ihr Bescheid: dawum.de/Ueber_uns

Liberapaydawum.de's profile - LiberapayDie Website dawum.de wird von mir seit 2016 als Freizeit-Projekt entwickelt, um Wahlumfragen zu Bundestagswahlen und Landtagswahlen übersichtlich und anschaulich darzustellen …