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kaliwhat i have learned from it: in shock there is no guidance. when things happen fast with many moving parts - there is no "predicting". i cannot tell the future from now going on. no one can. we know the trajectory, we do not know, or even know how to think about the system in its entirety. and so what i want to do is to cultivate a relationship with the unknown regarding the discussion about <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a>. <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/talkcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#talkcollapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a>

kaliand honestly, what i hoped from these guys was guidance through this difficult time so many people crave for right now and which they spend their entire life thinking about. and by now it's so obvious they can't do that.and now i think it is time for the <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/environmental" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#environmental</a> community especially but also for everyone even remotely interested in <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/human" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#human</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/future" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#future</a> to learn from all of that.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/talkcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#talkcollapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a>

kaliwe have not anticipated in any climate or limits to growth scenario that the social fabric, democratic institutions will be the first systems on the line when societies get hit with external shocks, despite the known fact that this has happened before in fascist europe. maybe secretly we hoped it would be simple. but it isn't. we thought we could understand the unknown and we can't.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/talkcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#talkcollapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a>

kaliand i fear that is a thing the people thinking about <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> a lot in the past decades just have not realized. they are still waiting for the next "big one". the purifying fire that will burn down the old order and make it all right. & that is not what this <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> will be like. there will be no sudden crash, no global revolution, no physical, resource-tied event at all, but a terribly slow grind that begins with slow but steady social disintegration.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/talkcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#talkcollapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a>

kalino matter what we thought would be "the big one" - it wasn't. <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/peakoil" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#peakoil</a> wasn't it. 2008 wasn't it. <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/complexity" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#complexity</a> didn't collapse in on itself but build up. <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/covid" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#covid</a> wasn't it. the russian war wasn't it. the system is very resilient, more than anyone anticipated thinking about these things. you call it a "<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/superorganism" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#superorganism</a>" - well if it is then it wants to live. living things want to stay alive. they might be drinking & smoking, but the want to stay alive.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/talkcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#talkcollapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a>

kalimaybe they have done this for too long. as simple as that. we had a plan for how the world ends, right. oil would get so expensive to produce, plunging the world into terminal economic decline. but then they started printing money. government around the world made it abundantly clear that if there is oil in the ground, they want to get it out. and so the party continued. and the complexity kept increasing. the complexity itself didn't <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> the system either.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/talkcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#talkcollapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a>

kaliyou know what is the most surreal thing? my ex-comerades, you know, the <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/peakoil" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#peakoil</a> & <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> folks from the US, they are on <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/X" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#X</a> panicking about nuclear war or AGI or whatever the hell imaginary threat it is on <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/X" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#X</a> today while the western world literally wraps up right before their eyes.funny how that turned out.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/talkcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#talkcollapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/justcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#justcollapse</a>

kaliespecially the women in computer science who pioneered this entire field and build all the computers to calculate these models and warned us since the 70s. instead it is always the white men with too big of a mouth. cultsy.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/justcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#justcollapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/talkcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#talkcollapse</a>

kalinot that we didn't have all sorts of people to listen to & learn from.but no. we have to listen to the white dude on X spreading <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/antivaxx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#antivaxx</a> conspiracy theories bc that is the only one germans can actually google on the interwebs.just *SMH*. but i am over it. do whatever you want & make your own experiences with the dudes i am talking about. just do it off my timeline. end of story.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatecrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatecrisis</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/justcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#justcollapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/talkcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#talkcollapse</a>

kalii think this is one of the most unresolved questions in the <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> community. "are humans smarter than yeast?" ~ bob shawyou really have to dissect that question. what is this lack of "smartness" of yeast? not stop growing when it start poisoning itself. this is just systems dynamics. the reinforcing feedback is dominant, causing exponential growth until K is reached. to be able to be smart enough to not kill itself yeast would need a mechanism to tell it when to stop "yeasting".

kaliart & nate & all these 1st generation <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> folk always understood that <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/energy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#energy</a> is life. in the most profound way. complex life needs high level organisation. to put molecules the place they should be. the universe doesn't do that on it own. thermodynamics tells it otherwise. only concentrated, easily harvest-able energy enables the high level of organisation, life, to exist. so as sunlight, but much more so: as fossil fuels.and so few people know that that its scary.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a>

kalii am sorry to confront people with all of this. this is all a kind of information with you should consume with great caution. i have seen people going genuinely insane over it. but no problem or predicament can be a addressed or responded to without being understood.so i hope i find some people who are willing to think about this with me.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/limitstogrowth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#limitstogrowth</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#overshoot</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sustainability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#sustainability</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#resilience</a>

kalithis graph is especially frightening. if you know <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/systemsdynamics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#systemsdynamics</a>, here's a question for you: with all the data and insight we currently have on all our systems, the energy/economy relation - which kind of systems dynamics, which dominant feedback produces such a graph?<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/limitstogrowth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#limitstogrowth</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#overshoot</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sustainability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#sustainability</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#resilience</a>

kaliand now comes the hardest-to-accept part, even i am struggling a lot with it, and maybe we should. the only plan we have is about climate change, and it all comes back to the decoupling while growing the economy, of which we do currently NOT KNOW if it is even possible on a planet-scale. IF we for whatever reason magically solve that - the next limit approaches.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/limitstogrowth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#limitstogrowth</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#overshoot</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sustainability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#sustainability</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#resilience</a>

kaliyou remember these <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatestripes" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatestripes</a>, someone has done the same thing for biodiversity & the worlds freshwater and that sums up our entire situation pretty comprehensively.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/limitstogrowth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#limitstogrowth</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#overshoot</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sustainability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#sustainability</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#resilience</a>

kalisome smart folks in the 70s ran the numbers on all of it through a systems dynamics computer model. the limits to growth report. forester, the meadows.the 1st graph is the result which has been seen as lost likely.2. some other runs of the model3. a re-calibration of the model run on modern computer system im 20234. the model vs. actual statistical data.we are right on track.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/limitstogrowth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#limitstogrowth</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#overshoot</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sustainability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#sustainability</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#resilience</a>

kaliwhat we, western civilization, to be precise, has been doing is to overshoot so many vital ecosystems so much that we are permanently damaging vital structures beyond repair. that is what i mean when i talk about tipping points, it is not just the climate. once these vital structures are gone the system will tip into a different state and all of that is why overshoot is hard to understand and measure.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/limitstogrowth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#limitstogrowth</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#overshoot</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sustainability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#sustainability</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#resilience</a>

kaliecosystems are very resilient & constantly regenerate. if a species is not taking too much from its environment this results in a sustainable flow, which is rare, even in nature. species overshoot the carrying capacity of their ecosystem temporarily, all the time. a fluctuation in population will occur, but no lasting damage to the ecosystem itself.that is however NOT what humans have been doing.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/limitstogrowth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#limitstogrowth</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#overshoot</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sustainability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#sustainability</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#resilience</a>

kalithis observation can also be made in nature. organisms & species, which for whatever reason tap into a large source of energy, grow exponentially until reaching other constraints to the environment. and we know why that happens, it is aaall systems dynamics, which i will be talking A LOT about on this feed, but for now that would be too much for this thread. think of an algae bloom in a lake.<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/limitstogrowth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#limitstogrowth</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#overshoot</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sustainability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#sustainability</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#resilience</a>

kalifirst of all there is the fact of energy density. the thermodynamics say energy that is dissipated, heat, moving molecules distributed over a large area, cannot be used. i think this is sort of a stretch, but for now it really helps to envision the concept, bc the reason why industrial civilization exists is that dense, low entropy, if you will, energy from fossil fuels, that set off its explosion. <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/limitstogrowth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#limitstogrowth</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#overshoot</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/climatechange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#climatechange</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapse</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/collapseology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#collapseology</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/sustainability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#sustainability</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/resilience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#resilience</a>

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