sollat<p>It’s still sunny here, but I think the wind just pinged my UPS. It’s gusting. </p><p>Plum Tree says:</p><p>“PARDON ME WHILE I DO THE TWIST”</p><p><a href="https://masto.ai/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a></p>
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#wawx
1 post · 1 participant · 1 post today
Mark Ingalls<p>One of the graphics I'm putting together for my <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://pdx.social/@scienceontap" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>scienceontap</span></a></span> talk on May 6. This provides a good look at the role the Cascades play in regional <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>climate</span></a>.</p><p>Details and tickets here: <a href="https://www.scienceontaporwa.org/events/kiggins_may_6_weather/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">scienceontaporwa.org/events/ki</span><span class="invisible">ggins_may_6_weather/</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>I am *so* excited to be talking about Pacific Northwest <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> at Science on Tap in Kiggins Theatre in Vancouver, WA on May 6! If you’re in the Portland metro, check it out!</p><p><a href="https://www.scienceontaporwa.org/events/kiggins_may_6_weather/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">scienceontaporwa.org/events/ki</span><span class="invisible">ggins_may_6_weather/</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/pdxtst" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>pdxtst</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/orwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>orwx</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>Some marine-influence stratus is present in parts of the Lower Mainland and NW Washington. It should evaporate later this morning for mostly sunny skies.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/YVR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YVR</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a></p>
nationalparks<p>Mount Rainier National Park today (Paradise). Learn more at <a href="https://www.nps.gov/mora/index.htm" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="">nps.gov/mora/index.htm</span><span class="invisible"></span></a> and <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/mountrainier" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>mountrainier</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/interpretation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>interpretation</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/nps" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>nps</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/nationalparks" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>nationalparks</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/publiclands" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>publiclands</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/photography" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>photography</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/landscapephotography" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>landscapephotography</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/spring" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>spring</span></a> Image credit National Park Service <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/snow" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>snow</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/trees" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>trees</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/mountain" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>mountain</span></a></p>
Thomas Sibley<p>What a great weather week for spring break! Perfection. <a href="https://metasocial.com/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a> <a href="https://metasocial.com/tags/seattle" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>seattle</span></a></p>
sollat<p>Milli cannot believe the nerve of this bright weather. </p><p><a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Cats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Cats</span></a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/FalseSpring" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FalseSpring</span></a></p>
J<p>There's a storm blowing in for the afternoon <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/pnw" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>pnw</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>New article: La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutral conditions favored into Fall 2025
<a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-nina-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/l...</a>
<a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23weather" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#weather</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23lanina" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#lanina</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23BCstorm" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#BCstorm</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23WAwx" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#WAwx</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23ORwx" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ORwx</a><br><br><a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-nina-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutra...</a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>New article: La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutral conditions favored into Fall 2025</p><p><a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-nina-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-ni</span><span class="invisible">na-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/lanina" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>lanina</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a></p>
Ingalls Weather<p><strong>La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutral conditions favored into Fall 2025</strong></p><p>The latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center declared that La Niña has ended in the Pacific Ocean. We noted in some recent episodes of the <a href="https://ingallswx.com/comedeorology/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Comedeorological Report</a> that this was coming as sea surface temperatures along the equator had warmed.</p><p>La Niña is the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is driven by sea surface temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The warm phase is El Niño while being near average is commonly called ENSO-Neutral.</p><blockquote><p><em>Ingalls Weather thanks the support it gets from donors. Please consider making a small donation </em><a href="https://ingallswx.com/donate/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">at this link</a><em> to help me pay for the website and access to premium weather data.</em></p></blockquote><p>Last winter’s La Niña was fairly weak despite early forecasts calling for a strong event. Development was delayed, with one possible factor behind this being very warm ocean temperatures throughout the planet. During the fall months, updated forecasts improved significantly.</p><p>La Niña’s death during spring of 2025 has been well-modeled for several months. Data shows that we are likely to remain in ENSO-Neutral conditions through the summer months with neutrality also favored this fall. A bias toward neutral conditions remains in the modeling through winter 2025-26 but confidence decreases the further into the future we look.</p> <p>Type your email…</p><p>Subscribe</p> <p>Looking toward the summer, some years with similar ENSO conditions are 2018, 2006, and 2001. Where this year goes will depend on more factors than just ENSO but this can give us some foresight in what to expect. These three years appear appropriate as they all brought ENSO-Neutral summers after a weak La Niña.</p><p>Last month I published <a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/03/11/looking-ahead-to-summer-2025-in-north-america/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">an article</a> that drew heavily on 2022 as an analog year for this summer. In general my view remains similar to last month’s article. I think out of the four years we’re considering, 2001 is the worst match for the Pacific Northwest as sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska were well below average during the spring instead of being above average as they are now.</p><p>It is worth noting that Summer 2001 also stands out against the other three years we’re considering in that Pacific Northwest temperatures were generally below average with well above average precipitation in and west of the Cascades. as well as in the B.C. Rockies.</p>Temperature anomalies for Summer 2022 in °C. (ECMWF/Univ of Maine)<p>The rest (2006, 2018, 2022) were relatively hot and dry summers in the Northwest and British Columbia. One exception here is that thunderstorm activity in Central Oregon and the Columbia Basin was enhanced during 2022.</p><p>A warm and dry summer following this moist spring we are having brings significant wildfire risk. Snowpack in Washington and British Columbia has improved over the last few weeks but we haven’t completely made up the deficit.</p><p>Moist weather in the spring and early summer allows for rampant growth in the understory of forests and of the grasses in arid regions. As this brush dries, it becomes fuel for wildfires. Fire season starts getting under way in May or June in the inland deserts and not long after in the mountains and forests.</p><p>A quick drying and warming can exasperate conditions by turning brush into fuel early in the season while also accelerating snowmelt. In the United States, nearly 90% of wildfires are caused by human activity. Dry fuels increase the risk of fire starts as well as the risk of them spreading rapidly.</p><p>The further north one gets in British Columbia the lower the population density, though human-started fires are possible anywhere. Dry thunderstorms become a significant threat during the second half of the summer in the B.C. Interior.</p><p>Aside from the fire risk, water supply is looking limited for this summer. Washington recently issued a drought emergency for most of the state. Kennewick Irrigation District is planning to request users to follow a voluntary watering schedule. Water supply for the Yakima Valley has improved in the last few weeks but remains below what was seen last year.</p><p>ENSO-Neutral years tend to bring the more activity during the Pacific Northwest fall storm season. If these conditions can be held onto into fall as models indicate, we could be in for multiple strong regional storms like the region experienced during Fall 2024. There is not a strong enough signal to discuss how this winter may look.</p><p><em>The featured image is sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific on April 9, 2025. (NOAA)</em></p><p><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/bcstorm/" target="_blank">#BCstorm</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/lanina/" target="_blank">#lanina</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/orwx/" target="_blank">#orwx</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/wawx/" target="_blank">#wawx</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/weather/" target="_blank">#Weather</a></p>
sollat<p>Hailing like crazy all of a sudden</p><p><a href="https://masto.ai/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a></p>
Solarbird :flag_cascadia:<p>woah, BIG lightning flashed across the sky outside our windows, around 1km away based on the thunder? maybe a bit more? definitely over northshore.</p><p><a href="https://mastodon.murkworks.net/tags/northshore" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>northshore</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.murkworks.net/tags/seattle" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>seattle</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.murkworks.net/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.murkworks.net/tags/lightning" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>lightning</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.murkworks.net/tags/thunder" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>thunder</span></a></p>
sollat<p>The opinions have arrived </p><p><a href="https://masto.ai/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Rain" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Rain</span></a></p>
sollat<p>The sky (and radar) is looking very opinionated, my King County friends. </p><p><a href="https://masto.ai/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/Rain" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Rain</span></a></p>
EZ Lorenz 🇺🇸 📸<p><a href="https://socel.net/tags/SilentSunday" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SilentSunday</span></a> </p><p><a href="https://ez-lorenz.pixels.com/featured/the-northern-lights-dancing-through-the-wispy-clouds-edmonds-wa-ez-lorenz.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ez-lorenz.pixels.com/featured/</span><span class="invisible">the-northern-lights-dancing-through-the-wispy-clouds-edmonds-wa-ez-lorenz.html</span></a></p><p><a href="https://socel.net/tags/Aurora" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Aurora</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/AuroraBorealis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AuroraBorealis</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/NorthernLights" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NorthernLights</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/SpaceWeather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SpaceWeather</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/WaWx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WaWx</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Clouds" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Clouds</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Photo" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Photo</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Photography" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Photography</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Washington" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Washington</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/PNW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNW</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Nature" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Nature</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Sunday" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Sunday</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Abstract" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Abstract</span></a></p>
sollat<p>What is this bright orb<br>It burns</p><p><a href="https://masto.ai/tags/FalseSpring" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FalseSpring</span></a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a> <a href="https://masto.ai/tags/PNW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNW</span></a></p>
J<p>Today the birds are singing proudly as the sun rises <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/pnw" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>pnw</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a></p>
EZ Lorenz 🇺🇸 📸<p>The Northern Lights came out to dance tonight through the wispy clouds after sunset in the twilight, captured from Edmonds, WA</p><p><a href="https://ez-lorenz.pixels.com/featured/northern-lights-in-twilight-edmonds-wa-ez-lorenz.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ez-lorenz.pixels.com/featured/</span><span class="invisible">northern-lights-in-twilight-edmonds-wa-ez-lorenz.html</span></a></p><p><a href="https://socel.net/tags/Aurora" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Aurora</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/NorthernLights" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NorthernLights</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/AuroraBorealis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AuroraBorealis</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Clouds" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Clouds</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Wawx</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Nature" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Nature</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Photography" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Photography</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/ArtForSale" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ArtForSale</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/ArtPrints" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ArtPrints</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/WallArt" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WallArt</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Prints" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Prints</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/HomeDecor" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>HomeDecor</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Gifts" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Gifts</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Giftideas" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Giftideas</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/FediArt" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FediArt</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/FediGiftShop" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FediGiftShop</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/MastoArt" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MastoArt</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/PhotoOfTheDay" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PhotoOfTheDay</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Washington" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Washington</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/PNW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNW</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Nightsky" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Nightsky</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/SpaceWeather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SpaceWeather</span></a> <a href="https://socel.net/tags/Abstract" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Abstract</span></a></p>
J<p>Blue Monday <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/pnw" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>pnw</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a></p>
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