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#Yields

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Public
Alexander J. Stein

Intensifying #droughts threaten future #foodsecurity: Soybeans, #maize & spring #wheat are most drought-sensitive & prone to severe #yields losses, esp. in US, #Argentina, #Australia & China. GHG #emissions intensify the risk of #drought significantly... (1/2) doi.org/10.3390/atmos16010034 #USA #China

MDPIIntensified Drought Threatens Future Food Security in Major Food-Producing CountriesDrought is one of the most severe natural disasters globally, with its frequency and intensity escalating due to climate change, posing significant threats to agricultural production. This is particularly critical in major food-producing regions, where drought profoundly impacts crop yields. Such impacts can trigger food crises in affected regions and disrupt global food trade patterns, thereby posing substantial risks to global food security. Based on historical data, this study examines the yield response characteristics of key crops—maize, rice, soybean, spring wheat, and winter wheat—under drought conditions during their growth cycles, highlighting variations in drought sensitivity among major food-producing countries. The findings reveal that maize and soybean yield in China, the United States, and Brazil are among the most sensitive and severely affected by drought. Furthermore, using precipitation simulation data from CMIP6 climate models, the study evaluates drought trends and associated crop yield risks under different future emission scenarios. Results indicate that under high-emission scenarios, crops face heightened drought risks during their growth cycles, with China and the United States particularly vulnerable to yield reductions. Additionally, employing copula functions, the study analyzes the probability of simultaneous drought occurrences across multiple countries, shedding light on the evolving trends of multicountry drought events in major food-producing regions. These findings provide a scientific basis for assessing global food security risks and offer policy recommendations to address uncertainties in food supply under climate change.
Public
Alexander J. Stein

Food production: There was no slowdown in global #yields growth over 60 years; any slowdown in specific #commodities or regions was offset by gains in others. But with #climatechange & growing demand, future #sustainability of production & affordability of food are uncertain: doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0

doi.orgYield growth patterns of food commodities: Insights and challengesUnderstanding global food production and productivity patterns is crucial for policy and investment decisions aimed at addressing poverty, food insecurity, and climate change. This paper develops comprehensive calorific-based production and yield indices for 144 crops, covering 98% of global agricultural land and food output. These indices provide standardized measures across various crops and varieties, facilitating comparison of agricultural productivity and consolidating country and regional contributions to global food production. Utilizing a Box-Cox transformation, we find that a linear model best approximates yield growth. Our findings reveal that, at an aggregate level, there has been no discernable slowdown in global yield growth over the past six decades. This translates into an average annual yield increase equivalent to nearly 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare. These results suggest that any observed deceleration in specific commodities, regions, or countries, has been offset by gains in others. While these findings are reassuring from a global food supply perspective, caution is warranted about the sustainability of production and the affordability of food. These concerns are particularly relevant as global food demand increases due to population and income growth, and as the pressures from climate change intensify. The study underscores the importance of adopting strategic and sustainable agricultural practices to ensure continued food security in the face of evolving global challenges.
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Public
Alexander J. Stein

(2/3) EU: The #dairy sector is projected to reach a turning point where the decline in the dairy #cow herd will no longer be counterbalanced by growth in milk #yields and EU #milk production is expected to decline: agriculture.ec.europa.eu/news/

Agriculture and rural developmentEU agricultural outlook 2024-35: A resilient sector adapts to climate change, sustainability concerns, and shifting consumer demandDiscover key insights from the EU agricultural outlook report 2023-2035, highlighting trends in agricultural productivity, trade resilience, shifting consumer preferences, and environmental improvements in EU agriculture.
Public
Alexander J. Stein

EU: Yields of #cereals are projected to decrease by 2035 due to #climatechange & reduced use of agricultural inputs—a trend that may be compensated by more #precisionfarming, digitalisation & #soil health, resulting in a marginal net increase... (1/3) agriculture.ec.europa.eu/news/ #yields

Agriculture and rural developmentEU agricultural outlook 2024-35: A resilient sector adapts to climate change, sustainability concerns, and shifting consumer demandDiscover key insights from the EU agricultural outlook report 2023-2035, highlighting trends in agricultural productivity, trade resilience, shifting consumer preferences, and environmental improvements in EU agriculture.
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