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You're in a game show. There are three closed chests, 1, 2, and 3. One of them contains a prize, the other two are empty. You can choose one chest and choose chest 1. "Are you sure?" the game host asks. "You can still switch if you want to!"
At that very moment, chest 2 malfunctions and accidentally opens. It is empty. "Huh," says the host, genuinely surprised. "Well, my offer stands."
What should you do?
Most people here know the Monty Hall problem. But, crucially, this was not the Monty Hall problem! The 31% of the people who said that it doesn't matter if you switch it or not were right.
Of course, this being a Monty Hall-like problem, I don't expect people to just believe me. So I've written a long blog post to explain:
http://lilith.cc/~victor/dagboek/index.php/2024/10/11/monty-hall-troubles/
@victorgijsbers Very clever, I didn't get this until I read the boxers variant.