https://www.europesays.com/1980599/ Guest post: How to apportion ‘net-zero carbon debt’ if global warming overshoots 1.5C #1.5Degrees #1.5C #CarbonDioxideEmissions #Climate #ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #GuestPost #NetZero #overshoot #ParisAgreement
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#overshoot
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While it may sound repulsive to modern humans this was one of the ways old societies remained in balance with nature, i.e. sustainable.
![Marvin Harris estimated that among Paleolithic hunters 23–50% of newborn children were killed. He argued that the goal was to preserve the 0.001% population growth of that time.[168]: 15 He also wrote that female infanticide may be a form of population control.[168]: 5 Population control is achieved not only by limiting the number of potential mothers; increased fighting among men for access to relatively scarce wives would also lead to a decline in population. For example, on the Melanesian island of Tikopia infanticide was used to keep a stable population in line with its resource base.[6] Research by Marvin Harris and William Divale supports this argument, it has been cited as an example of environmental determinism.[169]](https://media.mas.to/media_attachments/files/114/252/804/593/953/434/original/64029416f8f19e29.jpg "Marvin Harris estimated that among Paleolithic hunters 23–50% of newborn children were killed. He argued that the goal was to preserve the 0.001% population growth of that time.[168]: 15 He also wrote that female infanticide may be a form of population control.[168]: 5 Population control is achieved not only by limiting the number of potential mothers; increased fighting among men for access to relatively scarce wives would also lead to a decline in population. For example, on the Melanesian island of Tikopia infanticide was used to keep a stable population in line with its resource base.[6] Research by Marvin Harris and William Divale supports this argument, it has been cited as an example of environmental determinism.[169]")
![Anthropologists have argued that those with disabilities are often viewed as bad omens as raising a child with a disability in such communities are an insurmountable hurdle.[172] For example, in southern Ethiopia, children with physical abnormalities are considered to be ritually impure or mingi, with the ability to exert an evil influence upon others, so disabled infants have traditionally been disposed of.[173]](https://media.mas.to/media_attachments/files/114/252/807/859/401/634/original/f50ebecad0e9e102.jpg "Anthropologists have argued that those with disabilities are often viewed as bad omens as raising a child with a disability in such communities are an insurmountable hurdle.[172] For example, in southern Ethiopia, children with physical abnormalities are considered to be ritually impure or mingi, with the ability to exert an evil influence upon others, so disabled infants have traditionally been disposed of.[173]")
#ClimateCrisis #earth #humanity #societalcollapse #article
"#Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save #Civilization"
I also quote a paragraph that brings some hope (from another article of the same author).
"That’s why I always emphasize that even though it’s too late to save civilization, it’s not too late to save as much of the natural world as possible. Every 1/10th of a degree of warming that we prevent will save millions of lives and countless species."
Medium · Overshoot: Why It’s Already Too Late To Save Civilization
"on est dans les clous ! " 
... du cercueil 
#Overshoot #Collapse
I think that whatever happens, we absolutely must keep a healthy biodiverse population of horses alive if we can. When civilisation eventually collapses, we will need riders to stich the remaining civilised islands back together. We humans are just a bunch of very smart monkeys, upright walking grassland apes with big mutant brains that need a lot of fat and protein, but once we ride horses, we can have a very well organised society while staying mobile until we run out of grasslands. Savannah, steppe, prairie, pampa, whatever the local type of grassland ecosystem is called, once humans have horses, we can always live rather good lives there because we evolved for it, and so did the horses.
The grasslands will be different in the future because they will shift by thousands of kilometres if all this climate mayhem continues as projected (and in order for it to continue, all we have to do is not to change anything we're doing), with new species of plants and animals evolving from whatever survives there, but as long as there is a lot of grass, horses will thrive there, and so will nomadic tribes.
Whether people can still use horses to replace broken machines that cannot be repaired will have a significant influence on the probability of survival. We (well, those few of us who survive, not me; I won't live to see the end of it, I'm almost 50) might have to party like it's 1699, but it's better than partying like it's 5,000BC, and even that is better than partying like it's 50,000,000BC when there were those cute little mini horses, and that was because all the large mammals had died out because the planet was too fucking hot for them.
Just look at how populations of non-human, non-pet and non-livestock vertebrates are plummeting right now. Some species are thriving, mostly small omnivores like mice or pigeons, but all the other vertebrates are vanishing because we're destroying their habitats to grow crops or build big concrete boxes that suck up a lot of energy and raw materials and spew out heat and rubbish. Keeping both humans and horses alive during such a collapse will be hard, but if we lose horses, we will probably fall all the way down to a Palæolithic way of life with no chance of ever getting out of it again.
People keep talking about the climate as if it were the only thing that is killing us, while the biodiversity collapse is actually the thing which is doing us in right now. If we put enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to tip the Earth into a global Hothouse Age like back in the days of the tiny horses that were the ancestors of all horses, donkeys, zebras, and the tiny lemurs that would over millions of years evolve into monkeys, into apes, and into us, well, that will definitely be the end of us and of 95% of all other species of plants, fungi, animals, whatever, most complex multicellular organisms will be having a bad time, but waterbears or moss piglets or whatever you like to call them, tardigrades, they will barely notice that there's another mass extinction. But the biosphere will heal, our good old Earth will be fine again in five million years, maybe ten if it's really bad. New species will evolve from the survivors.
If Homo sapiens, the last surviving species of the genus Homo, doesn't go extinct, there will be future hominids, and maybe some distant descendant a couple of million years in the future starts another Industrial Revolution and ruins everything again. Nope, not going to happen, all the fossil fuels are gone. Ha-ha! No, any postindustrial civilisation for a very, very long time will be able to start another Industrial Age. Once that's gone, it's gone. We might be able to preserve a lot of the theoretical knowledge, but we won't have the mass production. If it can't be done in a village workshop, it can't be done at all. I think the Amish are a rather weird bunch, but at least they understand that reliance on complex technology beyond what can be made and repaired locally makes you vulnerable. And horses need neither oil nor electricity.
#πολυκρίσης #polykrisis #polycrisis #overshoot #collapse #SixthExtinction #ClimateChaos
Mir geht's so gut, ich hör mal eine Folge #DasKlima #Podcast.
https://dasklima.podigee.io/126-dk126-overshoot-ist-gefahrlich
| 2024 wird das bisher wärmste Jahr der Messgeschichte mit Rekordemissionen und es wird das erste Jahr, in dem die globale Temperaturerhöhung über 1,5 Grad liegen wird.
Yes, right in die feels.
[P] On the long list of things I loathe about hiverarchy...
Cereminimal Wealth Troglodytes: "Overpopulation'is a myth! Something something racism and ya don't wanna be racist. Or a pedophile! SO BREED LIKE SALMON!"
Drones: "Yeess maaassterr..."
Experts: "That's not exactly true, population overshoo—"
Drones: "KILL THE PEDOPHILIC RACIST HERETIC!"
I'm surprised Musk hasn't tried selling Magic Elon Crystals. It'd be lucrative...
Continued thread
Hm. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23010-5
"Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios" by deVrese and Brovkin 2021
They took one of the plant-soil models and looked in an overshoot scenario what the temperature rise and artificial sudden removal of atmospheric CO2 does to the soil and carbon store in the #Arctic.
The end result after adaption to new stabilisation level is: carbon store is only 40GtC lower than before the overshoot, ie a mere 4 years worth of current global fossil CO2 emissions.
This surprisingly (to me) low end result of -40GtC is due to increased plant growth from the temperature increase over pre-industrial, from the prolonged growth seasons, and a special Arctic circumstance of high Nitrogen availability that ensures nutrients for excessive plant growth.
But the "end result" comprises the whole adjustment period to a stabilised °C after the overshoot. Adjustment takes 1000 yrs in the model.
And in the interim periods, emissions from thawing permafrost do reach 1 to 1.5GtC each year, and for decades! The duration for this soil-atmosphere carbon flux depends on the level and duration of the temperature overshoot.
Of course, it also increases the #CO2 amount to be artificially removed to undo an #overshoot.
In the context of #RCPcollapse :
the toot above showed how natural CO2 removal after civilisation collapse leads to temperature reduction of more than 0.5°C within 30 years .
Now, while permafrost thaw is irreversible on human time scales, it won't continue in RCPcollapse. (Because Arctic permafrost has no general technical tipping point after which self-perpetuating or self-reinforcing processes would kick in. Such processes only exist in small areas, locally, with local-only tipping behaviour. See "Global Tipping Points Report" 2023, chapter on #cryosphere https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536521/)
In RCPcollapse, the adjustment to the new equilibrium will take 1000 years – but there won't be a palpable increase in °C from the thaw.
NatureTimescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios - Nature CommunicationsIn this study, the authors investigate a scenario where global temperature increase is limited to 1.5 °C. They find that Arctic ecosystems will need centuries to adapt to such an increase and that the ensuing steady-state depends on the preceding climate trajectory.
Das Ende des Wirtschaftswachstums - Ulrike Herrmann und das Ende unserer ökonomischen Illusionen
Replied in thread
@breadandcircuses Absolutely spot-on here. My own family is an endorsement of your statement: I have three children, two of them married. Both have chosen not to have children so as not to bring any innocents into the nightmare that's coming.
I'm sad that I will never have grandchildren, but I fully endorse my childrens' decisions. In fact, I'm so proud of them!
found this graph on my hard drive. shows how the great recession delayed the #overshoot day.
Why Cheap Renewables Won't Save Us?
An interesting look at the reasons. Here it is shown, once again I should say, that capitalism doesn't work when it comes to long-term thinking. Capitalism is about short term profit above all.
So, would the world be saved when be could kill the capitalist system?
Well, we would be much better off I'm sure, but unfortunately when it comes to saving the planet, or our civilisation for that matter, I don't think so.
When it comes to the energy transition, there are two main factors that are not mentioned in this explanatory video.
1. Renewables produce electricity. Wind, solar and hydro power all result in electricity production. Unfortunately electricity only accounts for some 20% of our energy usage. The rest is supplied mostly by fossil fuels.
2. More importantly, we are in a severe state of overshoot. We have been using more than our share of minerals, oil and whatever. There are just not enough critical minerals available for the type of energy transition that would be necessary for 8 billion people on the planet.
- And besides energy we also need food and wild nature -
#klimaatontwrichting | @tine in @apache_be: "#Overshoot, zo analyseren historicus #AndreasMalm en sociaal geograaf #WimCarton [...] is geen toeval, geen onvoorziene omstandigheid, het is een gecalculeerde mogelijkheid. Het was de afkoopsom waarmee 1,5 graad in het Klimaatverdrag van Parijs werd aanvaard. Dat de geïndustrialiseerde landen instemden met deze eis van het globale Zuiden was te danken aan een uitweg die ze voor zichzelf hadden geconstrueerd."
via @janwlrvn https://social.coop/@janwlrvn/113848367379401299
social.coopJan Walraven (@janwlrvn@social.coop)“Dat de wereld al in 2024 gemiddeld 1,5 graad warmer was, lokte bij beleidsmakers zo weinig reactie uit dat het de vraag oproept of ze die grens ooit ernstig hebben genomen.”
Collega @tine schrijft waar het op staat, met verwijzing naar het fenomenale nieuwe boek van Andreas Malm en Wim Carton, #Overshoot.
https://apache.be/2025/01/18/dan-gaan-we-gewoon-toch-even-boven-15-graad?cdlnk=b0NKYzhVOGl3dXJSWkRqRDQrOEtKblgwSXczZ2hBZC9EWU9iMHJUZ050dnpBRWZVVm9hb3N5dW5xTmphOjozYWZjOTJlYWFjMTM3MDg5MmFkOWQzN2Q0MWUwZjlhMQ%3D%3D
#klimaatcrisis #klimaatverandering
“Dat de wereld al in 2024 gemiddeld 1,5 graad warmer was, lokte bij beleidsmakers zo weinig reactie uit dat het de vraag oproept of ze die grens ooit ernstig hebben genomen.”
Collega @tine schrijft waar het op staat, met verwijzing naar het fenomenale nieuwe boek van Andreas Malm en Wim Carton, #Overshoot.
apache.be · Dan gaan we gewoon toch even boven 1,5 graad?Hebben politici de grens uit het Klimaatakkoord van Parijs ooit ernstig genomen?
Continued thread
a word about delays
this is not an actual archetype, but it can be said that a delay in a balancing loop almost always causes some problems, especially in a #limitstogrowth situation. #overshoot is the best example for that. and everything can be a delay. a stock is a delay in itself. a flow can and often has delays. delays are probably the thing i have the most respect of in a system.
Continued thread
3. situation, and this is the one we are actually living in:
what happens when the fishery still stays profitable, even at very low fish densities?
well, these oscillation get out of hand. the fish will at some point, no longer replenish. just for the simple fact they are too few and far between. the delicate balance of reinforcing & balancing feedbacks is disrupted and tips the system into a new state: the fish have now become a non-renewable resource. that is what we mean by "#overshoot".
Replied in thread
@gerrymcgovern I think you might find it interesting to check out the first video (or however many catch your interest) of this playlist on "Metastatic Modernity" by Dr Tom Murphy of UCSD.
Murphy has been writing on energy, economy, modernity, and their intersection with planetary limits for quite a while at his Do The Math blog, and although that started in a pretty standard "green tech" position, as he started to look at things from a deeper, and rather darker, perspective which in 2021 he turned into an e-textbook _Energy and Human Ambition on a Finite Planet_.
Anyway, sorry for dropping in from nowhere.
#climate #modernity #DoTheMath #overshoot #LimitsToGrowth #sustainability
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvUde-N4t8XncjoHqK0GsE7a6EXMRiyjH&si=10IAmdlEF16Q2BnS
youtube.comBefore you continue to YouTube
Garden 
“The modernity project does not define humanity. Humanity is much older. It’s too late for modernity to succeed but it’s not too late for humanity to succeed.”
“Most people are extremely depressed by what I say. I’m not. Not at all. I think it’s exciting to imagine what the future can be. You’re only depressed if you’re in love with modernity. If you’re not, it’s not devastating to imagine it disappearing.”
https://news.mongabay.com/2024/12/renewables-wont-save-us-from-climate-catastrophe-experts-warn-what-will/
#Overshoot #SystemChange
Mongabay Environmental News · Renewables won’t save us from climate catastrophe, experts warn; what will?In 2022, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres declared that the “lifeline of renewable energy can steer [the] world out of climate crisis.” In saying so, he echoed a popular and tantalizing idea: that, if we hurry, we can erase the climate emergency with widespread adoption of renewables in the form of solar panels, wind farms, electric […]